Analysis, forecasts, and insights on global economic trends shaping investment opportunities
Current state and trajectory of the world economy
Global Inflation
Global GDP Growth
Unemployment Rate
Average Interest Rate
The global economy is navigating a complex transition phase characterized by moderating inflation, stabilizing interest rates, and resilient growth in major economies. While recession risks have diminished in advanced economies, challenges remain in the form of geopolitical tensions, debt sustainability concerns, and structural shifts in global trade patterns.
Performance and outlook across key global regions
Moderate Growth
US economy showing resilience with strong consumer spending and labor market. Canada facing housing market adjustments.
GDP Growth: 2.1% (2024F)
Inflation: 2.8% (2024F)
Risk Level:
Stagnant Growth
Recovery remains uneven with manufacturing weakness offset by service sector strength. ECB policy normalization underway.
GDP Growth: 0.8% (2024F)
Inflation: 2.5% (2024F)
Risk Level:
Strong Growth
Diverging trends with China's recovery slower than expected, while India and Southeast Asia show robust expansion.
GDP Growth: 4.2% (2024F)
Inflation: 3.2% (2024F)
Risk Level:
Moderate Growth
Commodity-driven recovery with improving fundamentals but political uncertainty remains a concern in several countries.
GDP Growth: 1.8% (2024F)
Inflation: 5.1% (2024F)
Risk Level:
Projections for key economic indicators through 2025
| Region | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | |
| Euro Area | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | |
| Asia-Pacific | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | |
| Latin America | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | |
| Global | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
Major central banks have paused rate hikes and are preparing for gradual easing as inflation approaches targets.
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in September, followed by ECB and BoE in Q4. Emerging markets may lead in easing.
Full normalization cycle with cumulative cuts of 100-150 basis points across major economies as growth stabilizes.
Perspectives from our economic research team
"The path to policy normalization will be gradual and data-dependent. We expect the Fed to cut rates by 75bps in 2024, with other central banks following cautiously."
"Divergence within emerging markets is striking. While Asian economies are benefiting from tech exports and nearshoring, LatAm faces political uncertainty and commodity volatility."
"Geopolitical fragmentation continues to reshape global trade patterns. Companies are accelerating supply chain diversification, benefiting Southeast Asia and Mexico."